The Trouble with Sports Predictions

You see it on all the news sportscasts, the sports networks, online, radio and in the newspapers. Sports know-it-alls and fans alike predicting the outcome of games.

Not me. I never predict or have predicted the Packers would win any particular game. I say, "they're favored to win so they should" or "they're the better team, so they should win", but you will never hear me say, "the Packers will win the NFC Championship this year" or "the Pack is going to the Super Bowl this season". If you're wrong, you come across as a total moron, which is pretty much what I think of sports columnists and broadcasters AND fans who make such bold assertions. Hey, if you've got a crystal ball and KNOW for certain the outcome of a game, please - let me borrow it for a while. I have lots of questions to ask it.

You predict one team will win over another. Big deal. You have a 50/50 chance of being correct. Ooooooo - what a soothsayer you are. You're a top-notch seer, a wizard who knows all. Won't Gandalf and Merlin be jealous. Impressive. Your friends will love you and think you know a lot about sports. And you'll get laid by hot chicks with no more of a brain than you.

Case in point (and I'm being brief 'cause I could go on and on and on). Not that much was expected out of Brett Favre or the Green Bay Packers at the start of the 2007 season. Pro Football Weekly projected a modest 7-9 record for Green Bay, and a second place finish in the NFC North behind the defending champion Chicago Bears, who were picked to go 11-5. In addition, Pro Football Weekly released a player ranking based on 2006 production, current value to the team, career numbers and potential. The Top 10 quarterbacks included Donovan McNabb (No. 5), Marc Bulger (No. 6), and Chad Pennington (No. 9). Woof, woof, woof. Rounding out the Top 15 were Vince Young, No. 11; Steve McNair, No. 12; Michael Vick, No. 13; Favre, No. 14; and Tony Romo, No. 15 (Romo, an undrafted free agent, came into the league with no expectations or fanfare).

Now you see why I don't make predictions. IDIOTS.